What has happened to the gas market during the summer?
Gas futures quotations experienced high volatility: the October forward price swung many times between 32 €/MWh and 47 €/MWh. The TTF price was very sensitive to the news of strikes from Australia, which led to unpredictable gas prices.
At the same time, gas storage in Europe reached a high 95% of filling level, the highest value recorded since 2017.
But what can we expect in the coming months?
Despite the high storage levels in Europe, and gas demand remaining low, high market volatility is expected in the autumn. Climate change increases the frequency of extreme meteorological events. Possible cold spells in both Europe and Asia would lead to an increase in gas demand that could not be filled by LNG imports alone, as 2022 taught us.
In addition, the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian clashes had an immediate effect on gas prices. Despite this, it is not yet clear what the real consequences on the energy sector will be. For all these reasons, we could easily witness price tensions in the market in the coming months.